Formula 1 is racing in Spain this weekend. For a few reasons, it’s set to be the biggest weekend in terms of car upgrades. The track hosted pre-season testing, so teams have the right data to use as a baseline. It also has a good mix of corners, so teams will be able to see how their cars perform under a variety of circumstances. It’s also a matter of where the track falls on the calendar. Prior to Catalunya was Miami, a new track on a different continent than Formula 1 factories. Next weekend the teams head to Monaco, a limiting track in terms of performance and data collection.
The Imitator
As a result, many teams are shipping major upgrades. One of the most notable packages came from Aston Martin. The team brought an entirely new car design to Spain that has been quickly dubbed the “Green Red Bull” for its striking similarity to Red Bull’s car.
This isn’t the first time the team has been accused of copying another design. In 2020, while the team was referred to as Racing Point, it brought a car strikingly similar to Mercedes’ championship-winning car from the prior season. Racing Point’s car was called the “Pink Mercedes” and for the most part, performed as such.
In Formula 1, car design must be generated as a result of legitimate, independent work. While some teams share the same power unit, something like the aerodynamic design must be arrived upon independently. The accusation of Aston Martin is that it copied Red Bull’s side pod, which is further complicated by the fact that Red Bull’s Former Head of Aerodynamics, Dan Fallows, joined Aston Martin in early April. It remains to be discovered whether this was an independent design, or if certain inspirations were taken from Red Bull.
Imitation is a form of flattery. It often serves as a foundation for “new” ideas. Everything is a remix.
The Innovator
Another area where we often see imitation is in video games. One of those imitations is Apex Legends. The Respawn-developed battle royale was released towards the end of the initial battle royale craze. It came to market competing with PUBG, Fortnite, and Call of Duty Blackout.
When the game first came out, we wrote that Wall Street was wrong about Apex’s impact to Electronic Arts. A few years removed, it’s clear that we underestimated Apex Legends. Since its launch, the game has delivered over $2 billion in net bookings. It’s expected to be the primary contributor to EA’s guidance of 7% bookings growth over the next year.
When it came to assessing the potential of Apex Legends, we were wrong about a few things:
First, Apex was not just an imitation. The game took inspiration from the battle royale titles preceding it but added its own unique elements. It was built on faster gameplay through both player mobility and in-map additions. It offered a way to upgrade weapons in-game. While the game certainly has taken elements from others, it’s found a unique place in the market. The game’s current engagement level is evidence of that fact.
Second, Apex has had strong development support throughout its launch. We’ve seen the major live services games ebb and flow in popularity. Apex has had a steady ascent. The game is well balanced and continues to be supported with new content. Others have faltered. Call of Duty now has 2/3rd of its peak players as its latest installment in the series and changes to Warzone haven’t been well received. Halo Infinite had a strong launch but has shown relatively little for ongoing content updates. It’s no easy feat to continually generate new content for live services games, but Apex and Fortnite lead the pack.
Third, Apex’s monetization has been strong, despite being in first-person. We had a view that it would be harder to sell skins in a first-person game than in a third-person game. Both Apex and Call of Duty have shown this view to be incorrect. We may have underestimated the power of the season pass, which has likely outweighed single skin purchases in most titles.
Finally, the overall size of the battle royale market exceeded expectations. The genre has risen in popularity, bringing new players into the space. Battle royale is not a zero-sum game. New titles each bring in a new cohort of players, increasing the size of the pie.
The Green Red Bull
Apex Legends wasn’t a simple imitation, it was an innovation. Formula 1 on the other hand, happens to be a zero-sum game. There are a fixed number of points available for teams and drivers to grab each race weekend. Because of this, teams will be much more likely to protect their intellectual property. It’s why personnel changes between teams are often fought in the courts. Time will tell if the new Aston Martin is an imitation or an innovation.